Stidham is the headline, defense will decide the game
By Adam Uribes
· General
·
· 3 min read
"While Stidham will have a large part to play for the Broncos this weekend, the defense that plays the best will be the better indicator of who will move on to the Super Bowl in two weeks."
Unless you have been living under a rock since Saturday, the Broncos will enter their AFC Championship matchup with the New England Patriots minus their most important player, with Bo Nix sidelined with a broken ankle. The talk around town, and rightly so, has been how backup Jarret Stidham will fare as he is tasked with leading the Broncos to a win on Sunday despite not having thrown a consequential pass in the last two years.
While Stidham will have a large part to play for the Broncos this weekend, the defense that plays the best will be the better indicator of who will move on to the Super Bowl in two weeks. Don’t think so? Well, let's look at some interesting points to consider.
Yes, the Pats offense takes up most of the air in the room. New England finished 3rd in the league in total offense at 379.4 yards per game. One of the biggest factors behind this has been 2nd year quarterback and presumptive MVP frontrunner, Drake Maye, who finished as the 4th leading pass offense at 250.5 yards a game. Throw in 4,000+ yards, 31 touchdowns, just eight interceptions, and it’s easier to believe that the Denver defense, which still doesn’t have a nickname at the moment, will have its hands full.
Taking a closer look at the Pats' last two games in the playoffs reveals some cracks that the national talking heads have failed to go over. For as glossy as New England’s regular-season numbers are, they haven’t translated when it comes to playing better teams in the postseason. In two games, the Pats have managed just 314 yards of total offense on average while managing to score just 16 points versus a depleted Chargers team. Additionally, Maye himself looked more like a rookie than an MVP candidate versus the Texans in losing two fumbles and throwing a pick, all within the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. Yes, Stidham is the backup, but it's unlikely he will do a C.J. Stroud impression and keep both teams in the game with turnovers.
Presumably, the Denver defense should be the better unit when New England is on the field, right? Yes, the defense did turn a corner when it comes to turnovers and took three fumbles and two picks from Josh Allen and the Bills. For a defensive group that led the league in sacks and was among the league's best in several categories, they allowed Buffalo to gash them in the air and on the ground to the tune of 449 yards total. Throw in some struggles versus Kansas City and Jacksonville, and there are some valid concerns about the No Nickname Defense going into Sunday.
For as much attention as Maye and the offense have gotten, their defense has been much better than most have given them credit for. At season's end, the Pats defense was right behind the Broncos when it came to rushing, passing, and total defense, while finishing one spot behind them in scoring defense. While the level of offense has been suspect, you can only beat the team in front of you, and New England has two solid defensive outings in the playoffs, first in dominating Justin Sherbert, er, Herbet during Wild Card weekend and then hounding Stroud into throwing 4 picks last week. From Christian Gonzalez at cornerback, Robert Spillane at linebacker, and Christian Baremore along the defensive line, the Pats are young, hungry, and athletic on the defensive side of the ball.
It wouldn't be balanced journalism if we didn't poke some holes in that resume. The Denver offense with Nix has been inconsistent all year. But having a backup quarterback in Stidham does muddy the waters in the Patriots' preparation. There isn't much film on Stidham and the conservative approach that will need to be used in the Broncos game plan does lend most to believe that Denver will need to be more balanced running and throwing the ball than they would have been with Nix.
Looking at the numbers on the Pats' season also brings some raised eyebrows. The Pats may have some impressive league ranks, but they weren't great at getting sacks or turnovers this year, with only 35 and 10 this season, respectively. And in a season that has seen them be questioned repeatedly over the quality of opponents, Denver will be a tough out, backup QB or not.
The absence of Bo Nix for Stidham is a Grade A storyline, but the outcome of the game is going to come down to which group is better at stopping the other. On paper, New England may not have name-brand recognition, even without facing top-flight competition, but sleep on them at your own risk. Compare that to Denver, which brings more star power but hasn’t been playing its normal brand of smothering football for the last month. Whatever group has the better day on Sunday will be the biggest difference in who plays for the whole thing in Santa Clara in two weeks.
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