AFC Divisional Round Breadown
By Adam Uribes
· Game Analysis
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· 3 min read
Denver has some inconsistencies, but Buffalo is beaten up and will have to contend with a raucous home crowd. Denver has made its bones playing in these types of tight games, with this one figuring to be no different.
Back when newspapers were a thing, I am dating myself by saying that, the Rocky Mountain News would print out breakdowns for the Broncos' upcoming games. I used to pore over those couple of pages and make as many mental notes as possible of all the situations and matchups I needed to keep an eye on.
Fast forward to today, and I had the thought, “I can do that!” and here we go. The first deep dive for your Denver Broncos, breaking down the incoming Buffalo Bills. Where are the strengths, advantages, weaknesses, and things to watch for this week? Bourbon, Broncos and No BS has you covered, with in-depth breakdowns here and with our accompanying podcast that comes out every Thursday!
Broncos offense vs Bills defense -
Cutting through all the narratives and best wishes, the Broncos offense has been just "ok" for the bulk of 2025. However, like in boxing, styles make fights, and there are things that the Bills do and don’t do that appear to be tailor-made for a team like Denver.
There is a bit of a Jekyll/Hyde quality to the Buffalo Bills, as they are first in the league versus the pass but rank towards the bottom of the league when it comes to stopping the run. At present writing, the Bills give up a whopping 136 yards a game, good for 28th in the league. Despite having veteran defenders like Matt Milano, Tre’ White, Jordan Poyer, and Cole Bishop, the Bills have been gashed on the ground this year.
How can the Broncos attack the Bills going into Saturday? With three yards and a cloud of dust. According to ESPN, the Broncos are in the middle of the pack toting the ball, coming in at 118 yards a game. However, where Denver has found success lately has been churning out 10-12 play drives of ball control mastery. The Bills are a veteran unit, and even being bad versus the run doesn’t mean that you can immediately discount them, but when Denver has made the effort to slow the pace of the game down, it has produced winning results.
Look for rookie tailback, RJ Harvey, to figure heavily into the offensive game plan on Saturday. Backups Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie will also be counted on to extend drives on the ground and give Harvey a rest from time to time. Another potential X Factor could be Nix using his legs to keep the chains moving. While Nix has made a concerted effort to win games from the pocket with his arm, his designed runs and scrambles have been paramount in keeping drives alive. From watching games versus the Patriots and Drake Maye, Buffalo can be exposed potentially if Nix decides to tuck it and run.
Advantage – Broncos
Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Yes, Josh Allen is really good. On a team that led the league in rushing this season, Allen is the second leading rusher behind James Cook, gaining more than 500 yards on the ground and FOURTEEN scores. No, that’s not a typo. If you're still believing that Allen is a better athlete than quarterback, 2020 called and they want their hot takes back. Going from raw scrambler to polished passer, Allen completed almost 70% of his throws for a glossy 102.2
Speaking of Cook, the latter finished the regular season as the NFL rushing champion this year, gaining 1,621 yards while chipping in 12 scores of his own. The Broncos figure to have their hands full stopping the run when the Bills have the ball.
For Buffalo’s sake, they HAVE to run the ball well because their wide receiver room is resembling an ER unit now. Khalil Shakir is the primary target (72 grabs and 719 yards), followed by tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid (both with 49 grabs). While Shakir figures to draw a tough matchup in Patrick Surtain II, both Kincaid and Knox may have some space to operate if linebackers Dre Greenlaw, Justin Strnad, and Alex Singleton struggle to locate them when Buffalo decides to play-action off their run game, which they do very well.
Despite taking on some water at the end of the year, the Denver defense is still the better unit overall and has shown they are up to the task of stopping any type of quarterback, including the mobile ones. Josh Allen is a different animal altogether, so “containing” him may be the goal versus outright stopping him. Two players who could play an enormous role in carrying that out are safety Talanoa Hufanga and Ja'Quan MacMillian. Both players are excellent tacklers in the back end of the secondary and figure to be the chess pieces that Vance Joseph moves to counter Allen when it comes to stopping him on the ground. Between providing enough bodies in the box to stop Allen and Cook, while also holding up when Buffalo decides to air it out, their versatility is crucial.
Advantage – Broncos
You see a name like the Bills rolling into town, and the first reaction is to be uneasy. You can't discount that Buffalo is rolling into Mile High with some momentum, and Josh Allen is more than enough to keep any defensive coordinator awake at night. Denver has some inconsistencies, but Buffalo is beaten up and will have to contend with a raucous home crowd. Denver has made its bones playing in these types of tight games, with this one figuring to be no different. Put me down for 24-20 Broncos as they move on to the AFC Championship game next week.
**Still don't have enough factoids for Saturday's game? Tune in to the Bourbon, Broncos and No BS podcast with Jared, Spotty and David anywhere you get your podcasts to fill up on facts before Saturday. **
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